May 14, 2025

Economic Forecast Reveals Looming Crisis for Aging Oregonians

Oregon’s Aging Population is Increasing While Resources for Care Hang in the Balance and Workforce Supply Wanes

Today, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis released the June 2025 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast. This report highlights various factors impacting the state’s economic and revenue outlooks, including the potential cost of tariffs, global trade tensions, and other uncertainties like how Congress will change Medicaid policy that could directly impact Oregon’s budget.

Notably, the report also highlights a state and nationwide demographic shift as the number of older adults in Oregon now outnumber children. The report states:

  • “Now, the number of people 65+ outnumber the number of children.” (Page 25). This is a major change from just a few decades ago, when “in 1980, the number of children were over twice the number of people 65yrs +.”
  • “School enrollment will continue to decline and care/assistance for aging population will increase.” (Page 25)

According to estimates from Portland State University, Oregon’s population is expected to grow by an average of 0.5% by 2035. This minimal population growth will not keep pace with rapidly aging older generations, which presents a worrisome future for the state.

“Demographics are destiny, and if you have a slower growth rate in your population that means you’re going to have a slower growth rate in your economy, and all else being equal. And if you have a slower growth rate in your economy then that has implications of your longer term revenue projections as well,” said Carl Riccadonna, the state’s chief economist, in his presentation to the Senate Finance and Revenue committee on May 14.

“Today’s forecast reinforces what care providers and senior advocates have been saying: now is the time to prioritize funding for long term care services for Oregon’s low-income seniors,” said Phil Bentley, CEO of the Oregon Health Care Association, Oregon’s largest non-profit trade association for long term care providers. “We’re calling on the Legislature to prioritize funding for core, essential programs and services. We can’t afford the government we have today and shouldn’t be growing the size of it while existing programs struggle for survival. We frequently hear that legislators support seniors and their caregivers. This is the time to show it, before it’s too late.”

According to last year’s report from the Oregon Office of Economic Research, in 2023, 877,131 Oregonians were 65 years of age or older, and, of that, 85, 315 were over the age of 85—the age group most likely to need some form of long term care and support either in a licensed setting or in their own home. This number is projected to grow. By 2030, there will be an estimated 110,343 Oregonians over the age of 85, a 29% increase over the next eight years.

This demographic data, combined with today’s revenue forecast data, shows an impending crisis for older adults in need of care with fewer working Oregonians paying taxes (and able to serve as caregivers) coupled with more older Oregonians than ever aging and needing long term care and other health care services.

Many of these older Oregonians are Medicaid beneficiaries and rely on the state and Federal government to access care.

There are 37,970 Oregonians who are enrolled in Medicaid and utilizing long term care services and supports. This number will increase as the population ages.

This legislative session, the Oregon Health Care Association has requested a five percent cost of living adjustment to Medicaid rates for assisted living, residential care, and memory care communities as well as for in-home care agencies. The Association has also asked the Legislature enhance reimbursement rates for skilled nursing facilities in accordance with state law.

“We are asking for basic inflationary increases,” said Bentley. “We would like to see greater investments to advance quality care and caregiver wages.”